Raptored Vulcan Part 3: But Why?
As I tried to show in Part 2: Performance , Vulcan would get a big performance boost from switching to Raptor. But is it worth it for ULA? And would SpaceX sell? Is it worth it for ULA? Performance is attractive, but at what cost? Since BE-4 seems to be adequate for ULA, and since an engine swap wouldn't get Vulcan flying any sooner this close to the finish line, what would ULA get out of switching? Contracts would have to be renegotiated, Vulcan structures (plumbing, thrust structure, lower dome position), would have to be modified, there would be software changes, and there might even be operational changes. The work would be non-trivial, and so would the one-time cost. What, besides raw performance, might make it worth it? Lower recurring costs, for one. Rumors circulated a while back of Raptor production costs falling below $2M, and this seems to be in line with numerous tweets from Elon Musk. And much more aggressive cost cutting is planned for the future. This, of course, is ...